How to make important decisions without access to data?

Making decisions without data in today's data driven age can be compared to taking a leap of faith from a mountain peak and hoping to land on something which does not kill you. It starts the discourse from being defensive.

In the age of high frequency data, while using artificial intelligence (AI) and internet of things (IOT), it is sometimes very hard to make decisions the old-fashioned way. It is like trying to remember a set of mobile numbers without saving it in your phonebook. But we all at some point have to make some decisions in the dark without having any data.

Business owners and entrepreneurs encounter this on a daily basis. They have to make a lot of decision every day without having access to all the data to make an informed decision. Yet they do it, since decision paralysis is something which we cannot afford in this age of high competition. The difference in time taken between our decisions and our competitor's decision makes all the difference in who wins and in today's "winner takes all" scenario, you can't afford to be late. The frequency and importance of such decisions are usually directly proportional to one's size of pay check in any organization. The people on top usually have to take a lot of decisions that are not backed by data. Also, the size of payback associated with these blindfolded decisions are massive, not to mention it can go either way.

While uncertainty in decision due to lack of data is understandable, one must not lose sight that in a competitive environment they are not the only ones in the dark. Almost all the competitors are somehow in the same situation. This also leads to a massive opportunity, the one who will be moving with the closest accuracy and with stealth in their decision making have the chance to win it. Take the instance of Coronavirus, countries who were fast to act in dealing with this novel virus while not getting entangled with uncertainty in decision, fared much better than those who just could not decide as to what needs to be done.

The Coronavirus pandemic has had a devastating impact on the world economy and companies are hit hard by recessionary cycle and lack of demand throughout the value chain. If we see closely this pandemic has been one of the biggest in a very long time, we almost have no data of the Spanish flu and its impact. So, in many ways coronavirus as the name suggests has been a novel disruption for all of us. Some of the companies which started earlier this year in the business of streaming, gaming, grocery and food delivery etc, have had no idea of the fact that the pandemic is going to be catapulting their business many times over. In many circles people were rather worried and investors were panicking and advising founders to ride this time out and don't start anything new. But those founders who took this decision to start without access to this kind of data made winners and everybody else made a loser.

We can take the example of space exploration companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic etc. When SpaceX started, there was no data about the business viability or revenue model or anything for that matter. It was a novel business. Somebody rightly said "The best time to speed up is when the lack of visibility causes everyone else to slow down". Some of the best decisions defy data analysis. Some people take on ridiculously ambitious projects that no rational person would even think of.

So, the point of making such decisions without having the help of data necessary boils down to a few points which revolves around the core of your values and your principles. The mission and vision statements of the company goes a long way in establishing this concept. When in doubt remember the mission and vision statements of your company. What does it tell you? It will always guide you in the correct direction. So, the question one should ask themselves before making any important decision without the access to data should be:

1. Are you doing what you and your team will be proud to have done when you look back many years from now?
2. Does the decision reflect your core values and principles and upholds them?
3. Do you know that you can fail and have you accepted that fact?
4. Are all your competitors lacking the data?

Conclusion:

While data has become the backbone of all our crucial decision making these days, it is the high stakes decisions which are most of the time tricky because of lack of data. While making those really important decisions, one should focus on their core values and what drives their business or the idea behind them creating it at the first place. The mission and vision statements of the company plays a very important role in guiding their people in the right direction while taking such decisions. Most importantly, the decision should reflect your core values and principles and should make you proud in the long run.