Is the India-China border tension becoming a new normal?

India- China border has been fairly peaceful for many decades since 1967. Both countries have been able to find diplomatic ways to avoid confrontation along the LAC. But off-late things have changed. The border dispute and tension has been on a rise despite the diplomatic and political efforts.

India and China have been able to keep their border tension at the minimal and have seen a long period of peaceful diplomatic manoeuvering after going to war with each other in 1967. The last standoff both countries had was in 1987, which involved a military build-up by both sides. The crisis was resolved by talks without any casualties but pushed both countries to find alternate diplomatic ways to deal with LAC issues. But recently the India-China standoff around LAC has increased.

Since 2013 the issues of escalation and military build-ups have come back to the region again. In 2013 after China started asserting its claim to Tawang, a sensitive border town. The prolonged standoff cause both sides to sign a Border Defence Cooperation Agreement in late 2013. We cannot say the situation at the LAC has improved since then.  

In the recent times China's foreign policy under President Xi Jinping, has been a fairly assertive trend along the territorial fault lines. China has been really aggressive along the disputed waters in the South China sea, leading to souring relations with Philippines, Vietnam and other island nations. Also, the Indian side has undertaken massive infrastructure projects along the LAC which was never the case in past. China has already built massive infrastructure along its side of the LAC while India was happy to not focus of infrastructure at its border areas in the past, they were more focussed in their internal development rather than development along the LAC. This new shift in Indian policy to create infrastructure has led to a lot of activity along the Indian side of LAC, causing China to become alert and rethink its strategy. The most likely analogy is, China would want India to halt its infrastructure projects in that area, while India has been requesting for a return to the status quo as of April 2020.

If this strategy from China is really to halt India's infrastructure activities along the LAC, then why is it looking so battle ready? The answer to that can be manifold but the most important being the messaging to its domestic audience. China is facing an economic struggle like the most of the world, but since its economy is more entangled with the global economy with its prowess in exports etc, the exuberance is the economy is missing and people are losing their jobs due to dwindling global demand, this kind of mass unemployment affects an economy like China. While China is trying to focus on its domestic consumption and boost domestic demand it will not be enough to employ everybody made redundant in its export sector. China has an already disgruntled domestic audience ravaged by Coronavirus crisis and now the economic crisis. For them to rally behind their government, China would need to flare their nationalistic aura for them to rally behind their government. It makes sense because after the Coronavirus getting out of control, China has traded barbs with Malaysia and Vietnam in the South China sea, threatened Taiwan, passed Hong Kong national security law leading to Hong Kong losing its special status with US, chased Japanese shipping boats, tussle with US calling Donald Trump the worst US president and now challenging India along the LAC. The government of the People's Republic of China wants to risk accelerated tension with its neighbours to show an aura of strength to its domestic audience to maintain its internal status quo. 

There can be multiple other reasons ranging from the tinkering by India on policy related to FDI from China, the abrogation of article 370 in J&K which led to creation of two separate union territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh to the growing partnership of India with the USA. Though the abrogation of article 370 doesn't affect China directly but it could be in relation to its all-weather ally Pakistan.

China must understand, while it has certain benefits activating its troops along the LAC, it does not fit into the broader Indo-Sino relation strategy. Historically Chinese aggression along the LAC has caused India to get closer to USA, causing unspoken tension in Beijing. Also, China would be better off developing its strategic relation with India considering the amount of FDI and financial commitment it has made in the Indian domestic industry, specially technology. It should also not repel India to an extent where India reduces trade with China due to domestic economic patriotism causing people to boycott Chinese goods etc. Indian domestic consumption is a growing story which China should aim to supply. India also has its decision pending on the major 5G technology infrastructure and China would want Huawei to get access.

Conclusion:

While India- China relations have been touching new lows recently, it was not the case a decade back. China and India hardly used to have any border tension or military standoff along the LAC. Both sides need to diplomatically and politically think this through and come to a broader strategic understanding of how to resolve this contentious issue amicably while tapping into each other's strengths in terms of trade and technology to benefit themselves. The world order is shifting and both these countries cannot afford to create tension and stay as neighbours. They are both the biggest countries around with population almost half of the world. A mutually beneficial strategy would do wonders for both whereas a new-normal of tension along the LAC could very well flare up the third world war.